Al-Ahly controls the fate of Sundowns and Esperance... qualification calculations for the 2025 Club World Cup from Africa

South Africa's Mamelodi Sundowns and Tunisian club Esperance are close to qualifying for the 2025 Club World Cup, but they have not yet decided on official promotion, awaiting the results of the semi-finals in the African Champions League this season.

Al-Ahly will meet Congolese Mazembe, and Esperance will meet Sundowns in the semi-finals of the African Champions League.

Club World Cup 2025

The Club World Cup, in its new format, will be held in the United States of America, between June 15 and July 13, 2025.

The new format of the Club World Cup includes the participation of 32 teams from different continents, 12 teams from Europe, 6 teams from South America, 4 teams from Africa, 4 teams from Asia, 4 teams from North America, and one team from the continent of Oceania, in addition to the team Host.

32 teams are competing for the 2025 World Cup title, divided into 8 groups, of which the two teams ranked first and second, respectively, qualify for the knockout rounds, then the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and the final match, with reference to the cancellation of the match to determine the third-place finisher.

Qualifying accounts from Africa

FIFA granted 4 seats to the African continent in the 2025 Club World Cup, awarded to the CAF Champions League champion in the seasons between 2020-2021 and 2023-2024.

Al-Ahly and Moroccan Wydad qualified for the Club World Cup thanks to them winning the African title, while Al-Ahly winning the title on two occasions caused FIFA to resort to a special classification to determine the holder of the fourth seat.

FIFA rating

The FIFA classification depends on the clubs’ results in the last four seasons between 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, in the top continental competition, as follows:

- Outside Europe:

Winning a match: 3 points

Draw a match: one point

Qualification to the next stage in the competition: 3 points

- in Europe:

Winning a match: 2 points

Draw a match: one point

Qualification to the group stage: 4 points

Qualification to the round of 16: 5 points

Qualification to each stage of the competition after the round of 16: one point

Al-Ahly controls the fate of Sundowns and Esperance

If Al-Ahly is able to eliminate Mazembe, who have the chance to advance only if they win the African Champions League, then Sundowns and Esperance will qualify for the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup without regard to any other calculations, as they occupy third and fourth places in the FIFA classification behind Al-Ahly and Wydad, the two teams that were already included. A place in the United States of America.

Sundowns (98 points) is ahead of Esperance (90 points) in the FIFA classification, so the struggle between them has not yet ended over a qualifying seat for the 2025 Club World Cup.

Sundowns can advance even if they do not qualify for the CAF Champions League final, as this is guaranteed by a win over Esperance in the first leg, which will take them to point 101, or in the event of a draw in the back and forth, which will take them to point 100, which are two scores that the Tunisian team cannot reach in the final. These two cases did not win the title.

The cases of Esperance qualifying without winning the CAF Champions League title seem more complicated than Sundowns, as follows:

- The first case: A victory over Mamelodi Sundowns back and forth, even in the event of a back-and-forth loss in the CAF Champions League, guarantees Esperance’s promotion because in that case it will reach point 99, while the South African team’s score stops at point 98.

- The second case: A win over Mamelodi Sundowns in one leg or two, a draw in the other match, then a win in one match in the CAF Champions League final brings Esperance to point 100, while the South African team’s score stops at point 99.

- Third case: A victory over Mamelodi Sundowns in one leg or two, a draw in the other match, then a draw in the CAF Champions League final, back and forth, with a loss of the title brings Esperance to the 99th point, to be equal to the South African team, while qualifying according to FIFA standards.

FIFA had set the following criteria in the event that two teams were equal in number of points, as follows:

1) The best result in one edition during the period between 2021 and 2024 (Esperance will excel in this hypothetical case because of reaching the final, which Sundowns did not achieve)

2) Best result in latest version

3) Best goal difference

4) Scoring the largest number of goals

Teams qualifying for the 2025 Club World Cup

- From Europe (10 out of 12): Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Chelsea, Inter, Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica, Porto and Juventus.

- From South America (3 out of 6): Palmeiras, Flamengo and Fluminense

- From Africa (2 out of 4): Al-Ahly and Wydad

- From Asia (2 out of 4): Al Hilal and Urawa Red Diamonds

- From North America (3 out of 4): Monterrey, Seattle Sounders and Club Lyon

- From Oceania (1 out of 1): Auckland City